Tuesday? – Feels like a Monday!

The gradual decline continues this morning as bonds continue to slide for the 3rd week in a row.  MBS are off -9bp this morning and there does not to appear to be any support on the horizon.  This mornings Consumer Confidence number for May came in at a much stronger than expected 108 (104.5 expectation) which has not helped stem the fall.

The Economic Calendar for this week has some heavy hitters coming out. We have the Fed Meeting Minutes tomorrow and on Friday we have the double whammy of the Jobs Report and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) which is a favorite inflation gauge for the Fed. For now, the trend is clear with Bond prices falling and continued upward pressure on interest rates.

Did You Know:

The average length of time that an American investor held stock prior to 1970 was greater than 5 years, today that number is less than 10 months.

65% of American investors DO NOT BELIEVE that their emotions impact the investment decisions they make.

30% of American workers polled believe they are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to live to age 95.

More than half of Americans polled (56%) were either “very worried” or “moderately worried” about whether they had saved enough money for retirement.

The first man to distill bourbon whiskey in the US was a Baptist preacher in 1789.

The first paperback book was printed by Penguin Publishing in 1935.

Values on the Monopoly game board are the same today as they were in 1935 (no inflation here!).

Thanks and have a great short week!

Less Tough Love!

As expected the Fed’s broke camp today and released their policy statement.  There was no surprise in the fact that hey choose to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25%.  What was a mild surprise was the softening of the language within the statement.  Gone was the bias towards tightening and a move towards a more neutral tone.  This caused much happiness and glee within the markets as both the bond and stock markets rallied to some healthy gains.

Specifically, they said something like this: “Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth”. This was a clear softening from the previous policy statement which referred to possible “additional firming”.  They did reiterate that fighting inflation remains their number one priority.

Kiplinger Forecasts revised some of their numbers for the economy particularly in regards to the housing sector.  They forecast for a 4% to 5% drop in median home prices and a dip in total home sales of 8.5%.  Housing starts are estimated to decline by 18% in 2007 as compared to 2006.

Overall a mixed bag but from my perspective it feels like there is a lot of activity in the east bay market.  Homes that are in good shape and priced right are moving and the weather continues to improve.

Good Article

Follow this link for an interesting article on the economic outlook.