Simple Real Estate Definitions : Short Sale

A “Short Sale” is when a home seller sells his home for a lesser amount than what is owed on his mortgage, and the mortgage lender agrees to accept the lesser amount in lieu of a full payoff.

By way of example, a Short Sale may be appropriate for a home seller whose mortgage balance is $250,000 but whose home wouldn’t sell for more than $220,000.  Rather than pay the $30,000 difference to the lender at the time of sale, the seller enters into an agreement with the lender by which all sale proceeds are paid to the bank and the deficient balance is forgiven.

Short Sales are a preferable alternative to foreclosure but the process still harms both parties. For one, the seller is penalized with a derogatory tradeline on credit for not fulfilling a mortgage obligation. And, two, the lender is forced to take a loss on a mortgage loan.  Versus an executed foreclosure, however, Short Sale damages are relatively limited on both sides.

For this reason, Short Sales are sometimes considered “the economical alternative” to default.

The process of getting a Short Sale approved varies from lender-to-lender and can be time-intensive. Home sellers should not go at it alone — speaking with a real estate agent about the proper protocol is usually the best place to start.  And sellers should be aware of how a Short Sale on their credit can impact future borrowing.

Current Fannie Mae guidelines prevent short-selling homeowners from obtaining new mortgage financing for a period of 2 years.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : February 1, 2010

In a news-heavy week, mortgage markets improved last week, adding to a 3-week rally.

But, given last week’s data and domestic story lines, it’s surprising that rates actually fell.

1. The Federal Reserve said the economy continues to strengthen
2. Consumer Confidence pushed to a 2-year high
3. 4th Quarter domestic output exceeded Wall Street’s expectations

Usually, events like these draw money away from the bond markets and into the stock markets and Wall Street preps for better corporate earnings. The movement pressures mortgage rates to rise.

Last week, however, different stories trumped the headlines including a report from Standard & Poor’s that said U.K. banks are no longer counted among the world’s most stable.  This research, in particular, triggered a flight-to-quality among investors that pumped the U.S. dollar and sparked new demand for mortgage bonds.

It’s one reason why we ended the week on a rally and it just goes to show how unpredictable mortgage rates can be.

This week figures to be a challenge, too.

First, we start the week with key inflation data.  When inflation runs hot, it’s usually bad for mortgage rates.  Inflation is expected to be tame, however — a point the Fed made several times in its press release last week.  That said, inflation data is closely watched by markets and can make a big impact on rates.

Then, on Wednesday, ADP releases its private sector job report.  The ADP data is a precursor to the government’s own Non-Farm Payrolls report which is due to hit Friday.  ADP is expected to show a net loss of roughly 85,000 jobs.  Depending on where the actual numbers comes in, mortgage rates could wiggle a bit.

If the ADP report shows much fewer than 85,000 jobs lost, expect mortgage rates to rise.  The same is true for Friday’s job report.  A miss on expectations will cause mortgage to ratchet higher.

Since peaking on the last day of December, mortgage rates took a slow, steady descent through January. They’ve have taken back close to two-thirds of December’s overall losses.  This week, rates could fall some more, or they could bounce back up.  The most prudent time to lock would be prior to Tuesday’s closing. 

After that, the respective jobs reports will take over and rates could go either way with force.

Home Values Rose In November 2009 By Another 0.7 Percent

Reporting on a two-month lag, the government said home values rose 0.7 percent in November. 

National home prices are at their highest point since February 2009.

But before we look too much into the FHFA’s Home Price Index, it’s important that we’re cognizant of its shortcomings; the most important of which is its lack of real-time reporting.

According to the National Association of Realtors™, 80% of purchases close within 60 days. As a result, because of its two-month delay, the Home Price Index report actually trails today’s market data by an entire sales cycle.

This is one reason why home values appear to be rising even while new data shows that both Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales fell flat last month.  The home valuation report is using data from November; the sales reports are using data from December.

The Home Price Index is a trailing indicator and next month, as the Spring Market gets underway, the government will be reporting data from the holidays.

The same is true for the Case-Shiller Index. It, too, operates on a 2-month lag.

All of that said, however, long-term trends do matter in housing and the Home Price Index has shown consistent improvement over the last 10 months.  In many markets, home sales are up, home supplies are down, and values have increased.  This trend should continue into the early part of 2010, at least.

If you’re wondering whether now is a good time to buy a home , consider low prices, cheap mortgages and an available tax credit as three good incentives.  By May, none of them will likely be available.

A Rate-Locking Strategy Ahead Of The Fed’s Meeting Today

The Federal Open Market Committee ends a scheduled, 2-day meeting today in Washington. It’s the first of 8 scheduled meetings for the policy-setting group in 2010.

The group adjourns at 2:15 PM ET.

As is customary, upon adjournment, the Fed will issue a press release to the markets recapping its views of the country’s current economic condition, and the outlook for the near-term future.

The post-meeting statements from the Fed are brief but comprehensive. And Wall Street eats them up.  Every word, sentence and phrase is carefully disected in the hope of gaining an investment edge over other active traders.

It’s for this reason that mortgage rates tend to be jittery on days the FOMC adjourns. Wall Street is frantically rebalancing its bets.

Today should be no different.

The FOMC is expected to leave the Fed Funds Rate within its target range of 0.000-0.250 percent — the lowest it’s been in history.  However, it’s what the Fed says Wednesday that will matter more than what it does.

After the Fed’s last meeting in December, it made several observations:

1. The jobs market is getting “less worse”
2. The housing sector is making improvements
3. Financial markets are stabilizing further

The economy is gradually improving, the Fed told us, but there are still risks to the economy ahead.  Furthermore, inflation remains in check.

As compared to December’s press release, today’s FOMC statement will be closely watched. If the Fed changes its verbiage in any way that alludes to strong growth and/or inflation in 2010, expect mortgage rates to rise as Wall Street moves its money from bonds to stocks.

Conversely, reference to slower growth in 2010 should lead rates lower.

We can’t know what the Fed will say so if you’re floating a mortgage rate right now or wondering whether the time is right to lock, the safe approach would be to lock prior to 2:15 PM ET Wednesday. After that, what happens to rates is anyone’s guess.

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week : January 25, 2010

Conforming and FHA mortgage rates improved last week on the combination of weaker-than-expected economic data and new anti-banking rhetoric from the White House.

The S&P 500 shed nearly 4 percent in its worst weekly showing since October 2009 as all 10 sectors fell. As the money left stock markets, it made its way to bonds — including the mortgage-backed variety.

As a result, mortgage rates fell for the third straight week.

Since shedding 300 basis points in December, mortgage bond pricing has recovered a bit more than half of those losses.  It’s helping with home affordability and opening new refinance opportunities around the country.

This week, though, mortgage rates could rise back up.  There’s a lot going on.

First, on Monday, the December Existing Homes Sales report will be released.  The report is expected to be extremely weak as compared to November.  This is because of a combination of factors including:

1. The initial tax credit expiration date of November 30, 2009
2. Sharply rising mortgage rates throughout the month of December
3. A general slowdown from the holidays and from the weather

Therefore, don’t be surprised by the newspaper headlines you see Tuesday morning.

Other data this week includes the Case-Shiller Index — a measure of home prices nationwide — and the New Home Sales report. The Case-Shiller Index has registered mild home price improvement over the past 8 months and its latest report is expected to show the same.  New Home Sales should be similarly strong.

But, the biggest news of the week is the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2010. 

The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday this week and Wall Street will be watching closely.  The Fed is not expected to change the Fed Funds Rate from its current target range of 0.000-0.250 percent, so, instead, markets will watching for the Fed’s post-meeting press release.

What the Fed says about the economy will be much more important that what it specifically does about the economy for now.  If the Fed says the economy is growing as expected, look for mortgage rates to rise. Conversely, if the Fed says the economy is at risk, expect mortgage rates to fall.

The safest rate lock strategy this week is to lock your mortgage rate before the Fed’s 2:15 PM ET adjournment Wednesday.  Rates will be bouncy all week, but once the Fed’s press release hits the wires, it’s anyone’s guess what will happen.

Tuesday? – Feels like a Monday!

The gradual decline continues this morning as bonds continue to slide for the 3rd week in a row.  MBS are off -9bp this morning and there does not to appear to be any support on the horizon.  This mornings Consumer Confidence number for May came in at a much stronger than expected 108 (104.5 expectation) which has not helped stem the fall.

The Economic Calendar for this week has some heavy hitters coming out. We have the Fed Meeting Minutes tomorrow and on Friday we have the double whammy of the Jobs Report and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) which is a favorite inflation gauge for the Fed. For now, the trend is clear with Bond prices falling and continued upward pressure on interest rates.

Did You Know:

The average length of time that an American investor held stock prior to 1970 was greater than 5 years, today that number is less than 10 months.

65% of American investors DO NOT BELIEVE that their emotions impact the investment decisions they make.

30% of American workers polled believe they are “very likely” or “somewhat likely” to live to age 95.

More than half of Americans polled (56%) were either “very worried” or “moderately worried” about whether they had saved enough money for retirement.

The first man to distill bourbon whiskey in the US was a Baptist preacher in 1789.

The first paperback book was printed by Penguin Publishing in 1935.

Values on the Monopoly game board are the same today as they were in 1935 (no inflation here!).

Thanks and have a great short week!

Less Tough Love!

As expected the Fed’s broke camp today and released their policy statement.  There was no surprise in the fact that hey choose to leave the Fed Funds rate unchanged at 5.25%.  What was a mild surprise was the softening of the language within the statement.  Gone was the bias towards tightening and a move towards a more neutral tone.  This caused much happiness and glee within the markets as both the bond and stock markets rallied to some healthy gains.

Specifically, they said something like this: “Future policy adjustments will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth”. This was a clear softening from the previous policy statement which referred to possible “additional firming”.  They did reiterate that fighting inflation remains their number one priority.

Kiplinger Forecasts revised some of their numbers for the economy particularly in regards to the housing sector.  They forecast for a 4% to 5% drop in median home prices and a dip in total home sales of 8.5%.  Housing starts are estimated to decline by 18% in 2007 as compared to 2006.

Overall a mixed bag but from my perspective it feels like there is a lot of activity in the east bay market.  Homes that are in good shape and priced right are moving and the weather continues to improve.

Good Article

Follow this link for an interesting article on the economic outlook.